How long will russian 🇷🇺 offensive last ?
It’s been a year since Russia launched its Donbass offensive, today, they are capturing Selydove and Hrynk, threatening the whole ukrainian 🇺🇦 south Dontesk direction.
A year ago, russian army launched its offensive to take Avdiivka.
This year long offensive saw numerous captured cities (Marinka, Krasnohorivka, Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Ocheretyne, Ukrainsk, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka and many others).
(my article for @atummundi )
Today, ukrainian forces are retreating from two pockets in south Donetsk direction. Selydove and Hrynk.
Since a year, ukrainian forces managed to halt russian progress a few times before losing terrain. (Ocheretyne, Prohres, Novohrodivka…)
What are the russian tactics ?
First, the destruction of all defensive positions (dugouts, forest belts, houses, cities, trenches, bunkers…) UMPK kits for FAB (air guided bombs) are the game changer of this year, if not of the war. (video from Terny). Then, Russian forces assault ukrainian positions with tanks and AFV/IFV. This is why they lost 1919 equipments in their Pokrovsk offensive for a year.
It includes 398 destroyed tanks and 892 destroyed AFV. (by @naalsio26)
When ukrainian troops can’t hold their positions anymore, russian army switchs to infantry tactics.
Small infantry groops will then enter cities and towns. Ukraine simply does not have enough men and mortars to stop them. (small teams waving flags in captured cities).
Sometimes, ukrainian forces manage to halt russian progress, thanks to natural defenses (high ground, rivers…), cities and defensive lines.
Since august 20th, russian army is stopped in front of Selyodve and the third line of defense in front of Pokrovsk.
And when they are stopped, russian units try to identify the vulnerability with fighting recon missions.
They first attacked Ukrainsk where they found Ukraine was disorganized, then continued to Tsukuryne and then encircled Selydove from the southern flank.
Today, ukrainian armed forces are one more time in a critical situation. There is only one road left out of Selydove, I believe ukrainian army is leaving the city which will be captured in the following days.
This will open a new axis south of Pokrovsk.
Its been two months I’m telling Selydove is a very important city. Its loss will open the possibility of Kourakhove encirclement.
At the same time, the reactivation of Velika Novosilka front will accelerate this possibility.
At the same time they entered Selydove (after securing the flanks), russian forces captured Hrynk and will soon enter Kurakhivka.
After entering into Oleksandropil, Novoselydivka and Izmailivka, there are only 5km left (with barely no cover for retreat roads.).
In the coming days, the frontline will be Pokrovsk-Shevchenko-Sontsivka.
This is when russian army will begin to attack the main objective since two months, Andriivka.
Why ? Because if this small city falls, the whole south Donetsk front will fall with it.
Yesterday russian army launched new attacks on the Velika Novosilka axis after massing 10 000 men. They progressed to Shaktarske with a strong mecanized assault.
I believe they will try to reach Andriivka.
Nobody talked about it, but Russian army also reactivated the southern frontline near Levadne/Pryutne, taking back some terrain (from @Deepstate_UA)
There, Velika Novosilka is the main stronghold, while the Mokri Yali river is a strong stop line.
In breif, russian army took controll of Nevske in Luhansk oblast and advanced to Vyshneve in Kharkiv oblast.
Russian army is also trying to expand its bridgehead in Tchasiv Yar, with a lot of urban fightings.
How long can russian army continue its offensive ?
I don’t belive they are lacking men or munitions, and I don’t believe it will become a reality.
However, I do believe they will be lacking tanks and IFV, without forgeting artillery.Â
Thanks to all these guys (@jonpy99, @highmarsed, @waffentraeger, @CovertCabal, @Vishun_military, @Ath3neN0ctu4) we have a good understanding of the level of visible Russian storred equipment.
Around 55% of its tanks and 54% of its IFV/APC with most of them in poor condition.
Artillery storage has also decreased by 58% since 2021.
However, we shouldn’t forget russian army is also producing some tanks and IFV (I do not know exactly how many).
Can Russia continue at this pace ?
I believe they can continue to push (on their crucial offensives where they put their best equipment) currently south Donetsk, while pushing with less forces and infantry elsewhere (Tchasiv Yar, Toretsk and Luhansk oblast with infantry).Â
Ukrainian forces are still in capacity of pushing back the russians with small counter-attacks, like the one which happened in Toretsk a few days ago.
+ Russia can’t maintain the pressure on the areas they captured everywhere.
Some points to finish this thread :
How long will this continue ? I think russian have not unlimited ressources, but they have enough manpower and reserves to push on localized part of the frontline.
This is why I don’t believe they will stop anytime soon. They also want to push before the US presidential election, for the next president to say « its desilusional to continue to help Ukraine ».Â
In the south Donetsk direction, the situation is particularly difficult. Russian forces may capture de last cities of the south of the Donbass this winter (not including Pokrovsk)
Kourakhove is the main objective since 2 months, then they’ll turn next to central or north donbassÂ
In the south, we made this map with @Pouletvolant3 showing fortifications and supply lines for Ukraine.
Russian army will try to hit these lines.
All my maps and updates are made thanks to @Deepstate_UA maps, with @AndrewPerpetua @DefMon3 @UAControlMap as other sources.
Talking about fortifications, ukrainian army is now creating new lines, around Pokrovsk and east of Zaporizhia.
Clément Molin
