After 4 months of failed offensive in 2025, russian 🇷🇺armed forces renewed large scale assaults
This is the main russian plan for 2025, battle for northern Donetk oblast. Russia failed to encircle Pokrovsk 🇺🇦 and advance instead in less strategic areas.
Chasiv Yar and Toretk should have fallen long ago, allowing Russia to follow the terrain into Kostiantynivka and disturb ukrainian logistics in central Donetsk oblast.Both cities are still partly into ukrainian hands, allowing significant fortification job behind.
For the first time since 2023, Kramatorsk is being fortified again, with new anti-tank ditches and positions on the eastern part.More significant, on the western part of the city, a three layered anti-tank ditch is being dug.
Russian armed forces failed for more than 5 months to push on the eastern and western side of Pokrovsk. They first failed to storm the city and their attempt to encircle it have been pushed back.Yesterday, a large scale armoured and bike assault managed to advance on the east.
This time helped the ukrainian forces to prepare a dense fortified line, with a very complexe system to avoid entry in dnipropetrovsk oblast, another one to avoid western encirclement and another one to prevent a progression between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk to Kramatorsk.
The russian incapacity to follow their plan of attack on Kostiantynivka force them to fight in the highlighted zone, fighting they could have avoided.This area has no interest (few fortifications, low terrain, no cities) but will still be costly for Moscow.
At the same time, the good defense of Pokrovsk forced the russian armed forces to switch south and attack empty terrain without interest. Ukrainian forces delay russian progress, in particular in the Vovotcha vallay, allowing the preparation of defensive lines on the rivers.
I put in red the most important russian progress of these 4 months. It represents nothing when we think about the objective : Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk…
In white, I added the 3 areas of interest of Russian offensive. All 3 of them are well defended as of now.
I can say that Russia’s Donbass offensive in 2025 is a failure as of now. If the areas captured are as big as before, no area of interest have been captured and no progress made in the direction of the main objectives, contrary to 2024.
Moreover, we cannot see any large ukrainian force flanked, as it happened in Avdiivka or Kourakhove in 2024. Russia lacks armour vehicles and strategy facing the growing number of ukrainian barricades and ditches. In black here is the large number of barbed wire and dragon teeths mapped by @Playfra0 around Pokrovsk. All these barricades are meant to stop large scale infantry and bike assaults. Russian forces are more and more vulnerable to drones which became the main ukrainian strategy.
Clément Molin
