We shouldn't be afraid of Russia
What many failed to understand is that Putin is neither crazy nor stupid. He is even quite clever. He understood we are weak. Furthermore, he understood we were afraid of his power. We shouldn’t.
What did he want ? Putin was humiliated by the loss of the Russian Empire. When he came to power, his obsession was to Make Russia Great Again. He began by fixing the internal situation with Chechnya, saying it was a war against terrorism. But from 2003 to 2005, he was one more time humiliated. Many Warsaw Pact and USSR countries joined NATO and the EU. At the same time, color revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kirghistan challenged his project of great Eurasia controlled by Russia.
In 2008, he put pressure on Sarkozy and Merkel, both kinds of « Russian friendly » leaders. This avoided Ukraine and Georgia’s entry to NATO. When the war in South Ossetia began (because we said it was ok to Georgia), Putin crossed the border and enforced his power on ex-USSR countries. He saw nobody react in the west. Sarkozy rushed to Moscow to save the peace. Then, Putin prepared his strategy : one step forward, basing himself on the western political problems. When Maidan began in 2014, Putin failed for the second time to understand the internal situation of Ukraine. He thought his control over oligarchs and political power would be enough.
In 2014, most Western countries were at war with terrorism, in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Africa. Putin chose this occasion, annexed Crimea (with some Ukrainian units changing sides), and supported the war in Donbass. The West imposed sanctions on Russia. But for Merkel, the economy was more important. France, Germany and other European countries began bypassing these sanctions. For example, Germany even built Nord Stream 2 pipeline to avoid the ones going through Ukraine.
Putin understood this « Munich spirit » among Western leaders. He understood that they are afraid of the war. He also understood their armies were on a constant downgrade. But he did not see or wanted to see Ukraine was preparing for war. In 2021, he first did large exercises in Belarus and at the border with Ukraine. There were no reactions. So he began amassing troops. When the US said he was going to cross the border, most Europeans did not believe them.
His plan was simple :
- Attack Ukraine from everywhere
- Bet on the disorganization of the Ukrainian state and army
- Be fast like in Crimea in 2014, take control of main cities in southern and eastern Ukraine
- Kill Zelensky and put a new government, loyal to Moscow.
Putin is not crazy, he knows very well NATO is more powerful. He knows his economy is not enough powerful. He also knows Europe is afraid. He knows Germans do not want a new war. So he will base his entire operation on what the west will do.
He wanted to take the country before western leaders react. He knew it would take time for them to take decisions.
This is why he said, « anyone who will interfere with us will receive a response that no one has ever seen in the history of humanity ». His entire operation was a bluff. His army was not ready, and he wouldn’t strike any NATO country. But he knew western politicians, journalists, researchers and people would be afraid of him and his fantasized army. However, he did not see Ukraine could hold. He did not see western leaders could be united, particularly European leaders. He thought they would be afraid by his nuclear threats. But they were not. Well, in fact, they were very afraid. They waited a long time before giving Ukraine with what it needed, artillery, munitions, MRAPs, Tanks, Missiles, planes…
But it was enough to stop and even push back the Russian invasion. Putin changed his strategy from a short war to a very long war. His military power (artillery, FABs, infantry…) would be very helpful against Ukraine. He also put red lines. These are not real red lines because each time one was outdated, nothing happened.
Many people are still telling us, « Russia hasn’t even begun, they will bomb us, they will do a nuclear strike. » So targeting the Kremlin, destroying part of the Black Sea fleet, entering Kursk and striking military and energy targets all other western Russia is not enough for a nuclear response ?Putin is using threats and bluffs. He knows he can’t allow himself a conventional war with NATO. And he also knows we are still afraid of him even after 1 001 days of fighting. He knows our countries are not politically and economically prepared for a long war. We saw that in many countries, Slovakia, Hungary, France, Germany… where politicians (pro-russians) are telling us inflation is because of what we are giving to Ukraine.
And this is exactly what Putin wants.
Today, I read the reactions of people who still believe Putin could do one step more on this war.I listened to classmates and teachers saying, « But what if Putin reacts? » Vladimir Putin is playing with us and our fears because we are weak. We are weak because our society does not know war and privation. We are afraid of losing our consumer and « hobby » society. To face Russia, you have to show power and unity. We are showing weakness and disunion. This is the basis of realism and the law of the strongest. We are stronger than Russia, and they know that. But they know very well our weakness. This is why, when we finally allow Ukraine to strike back Russia with our missiles, just remember Russia is striking Ukraine every day (sometimes with Iranian and North Korean assets) -even some time Poland and Romania, NATO countries- and Ukraine is already striking Russia with its own drones. This is not escalation. To face Putin, you must show him you are stronger. And with 32 countries in NATO, 27 in the EU, of course we are more powerful.
Thank you for following this thread.
Of course, this is an OPINION thread. You can agree or not. If not, you can debate.
Clément Molin
