The battle of Kursk, not in 1943 but in 2024 has just begun
Ukrainian đșđŠ army launched a surprised attack on Sudja capturing half of the town. This little breakthrough is threatening roads, railways, NPP, and Russian citizens.
Unlike previous operations into Russian territory by RDK, Liberty Russia and Siberian bataillon (all Russian fighting for Ukraine), this one is managed directly by Ukrainian forces.
It begun 3 days ago, without anyone knowing it, while previous attempts were all discovered.
Why attacking Russia ?
Since two and a half year, Russia is conducting war into Ukrainian territory. This time, war is being fought into Kursk oblast in Russia.
Russian people have long being far from the « special military operation », it is now coming to them.
Operation began with an armoured assault that allowed at least 1 Ukrainian brigade to breakthrough border defenses unmanned and poorly defended by conscripts and Chechens.
This is what my friend @LovelyLad_ believes. Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defenses and minefield before cutting strategic roads.
https://x.com/LovelyLad_/status/1821155231561851120?t=DGG9m_y7E8TU9S6gMR5_4g&s=19
I do agree with this thread by @Schizointel on the railway network.
Cutting the Lgov-Belgorod is a big blow. However, there are still road and rail supply from the Kursk Belgorod road.
https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1821050754997604690?t=LuwMe4ufcRXwprlcbOLmBg&s=19
I updated my online map ( ) which shows geolocated advance. I believe Ukrainian army entered Sudja and are nearing 2 other towns, Korenevo and Malaya Loknya.
Here is the map from @emilkastehelmi and @Black_BirdGroup showing how unuseful Russian fortifications were.
Both lines have been taken quickly, because Ukraine acted fast, used air defense and took the Russian headquarters in Sudja.
Even Rybar, a pro Russian Telegram chanel shows much more advances. Many Iskander strikes were shown, indicating there are few artillery in this direction. For now, at least 2 russian helicopters have been downed, including one by FPV drone.
Here are some geolocated footages from @giK1893, @moklasen and @EjShahid which are the ones allowing all the mappers to map.
-Ukrainian column in Sumy oblast
-Ukrainian towing damaged equipment
-Russian Iskander strike
-đșđŠ Armoured vehicle going out of Sudja.
But why would Ukraine attack there ?
This question is being debated a lot.
They took some territory, captured Russian soldiers and are threatening key roads and railway junctions. But they are mainly threatening Russian citizens by bringing the war into their country. However, I personnaly do not understand why they are using units there they could use into Donbass.
Pokrovsk front needs men and every deepstate update shows more Russian advances.
If they are able to advance fast enough and far enough in Russia, they can have interesting results. But for now Russia has not moved brigades from the Donbass to Kursk.
However this time, this do not seems to be some PR attacks aimed at nothing but claiming « we attacked Russia ».Â
This time, we can see an organised formation taking territory very fast. Now they can advance as far as they can because they destroyed Russian defenses. And this time they controll the heights.
I believe Ukraine could use this time to reinforce Sumy defenses right on the border, while they usually dug severall kilometers from it.
They can also do a « Kharkiv style » offensive aimed at attracting Russian units.
I do not believe they could reach Kursk city nor the Kursk nuclear power plant. Some said they could exchange it for Energodar NPP…
I believe they should try to cut Russian border defenses from their back, especially near Tetkino. They can also stay there to attract Russians.
And yes some Russian channels are talking about 8 brigades and that NPP axis. I do not think it I’d accurate. Time will tell of course.
Always remember to keep different sources.
We should not forget the difficult situation in the Donbass for the Ukrainian army.
Even if this Kursk attack is a success for Ukraine, the main front is not in Kursk. I’m saying we should wait to see clear results.Â
Finally, we are at the beginning of the first real breakthrough of 2024. Everything depends on Ukrainian objectives and the reserves they will or will not engage to exploit that breakthrough.
https://x.com/WarintheFuture/status/1821344192452592016?t=cUME_WETcZs4ndkDayXDKg&s=19
Russian Telegram channels and political leaders do not seem to be very pleased by this uncomfortable situation, the next days will tell if they are forced to ease their Donbass pressure as Ukraine was in may 2024 when Kharkiv was attacked.
Clément Molin
