Critical situation for ukrainian armed forces in the south Dontesk front. They just destroyed a dam on the Vovotcha river.
This comes amid the risk of Kurakhove being encircled from the north-west. If the situation was already critical for the city, it became catastrophic during the last week. Russian recon managed to enter Sontsivka, the town north-west of Kurakhove, breaking between ukrainian lines.
At the same time, Russian army continued its offensive south of Kurakhove, in the direction of the H15 Zaporizhia-Donetsk Highway. Now, there is only one road out of Kurakhove, dominated by the high ground and between 7 (north) and 9 km (south) from the frontlines.
Zelensky himself said he decided to reinforce Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions.
I said 2 weeks ago that Russia aims to take the city between the end of November and the end of the year, this seems quite possible.
In the pocket (map from 2 days ago), many experienced units are still defending their positions, while territorial defense forces and other units have difficulties on the flanks.
This is exactly where Russia is pushing.
Its been a few weeks Russia is carpet-bombing the city of Kurakhove to deter its defenders from using it as a base for their defensive operations.
At the time we’re talking, ukrainian armed forces are leaving the pocket north of the Vovotcha lake. Russian 114th Motor Rifle Brigade, legendary for all the village it took in the past months, hoisted its flag in Novoselydivka.
With the destruction of the dam west of Kurakhove, Ukraine wants to prevent Russia from cutting the city of Kurakhove.
It also indicates their forces must have retreated from the area north of the city and the lake.
At the same time, russian army took controll of some positions of the Kurakhove defensive line, while it advanced to Uspenivka from the south.
One more time, ukrainian units east of Uspenivka may be forced to retreat from their positions.
Yesterday, a Leopard 2 Tank from 33rd mechanized brigade fired at advancing Russian infantry near the Kurakhove defensive line. Using a lone modern tank to fight infantry indicates the lack of men to hold positions.
The destruction of the dam indicated Russia now has a firm controll of Sontsivka and is now threathening the H15 highway. The days or weeks of Kurakhove are now numbered…
I’ll continue to monitor the situation, also with eyes on Russian offensive in Kursk and russian offensive in Hulialpole, Zaporizhia oblast.
I’ll also keep and eye on the fortification program, only if the clouds are letting me…
Clément Molin -English-
